In recent months, there has been some criticism of Met Office Inshore Forecasts for UK waters. In a letter published in the April PBO, the MCA has given some figures for “accuracy” of forecasts. They state that over a period of one year,
- The “hit rate” for gale warnings (for sea areas) was 92%
- The “hit rate” for coastal strong wind warnings 96%.
- Within a typical 24 hour period forecast, 94% of winds were within one Beaufort force of prediction.
Leaving aside any remark about lies, damned lies etc, what do these figures mean?